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SBP to hold rate as floods fuel inflation | The Express Tribune
KARACHI:
Pakistan’s central bank is expected to keep its key rate steady on Monday, a Reuters poll showed, as floods that ravaged farmland and threaten fresh food inflation prompt policymakers to extend their pause on monetary easing.
Thirteen of 14 analysts surveyed forecast the State Bank of Pakistan (SBP) will hold its policy rate at 11%, while one projected a 50 basis-point cut.
Since late June, floods have swamped Punjab’s farmland, disrupting supply chains and stoking inflation fears, with nearly 950 people killed, 6,500 livestock lost, 8,200 houses destroyed and 4.5 million displaced as waters move south.
“Given the uncertainty, we expect the central bank may pause in September, though our base case allows for a 50100 bps cut by year-end,” said Waqas Ghani, Head of Research at JS Global Capital.
Analysts flag GDP hit, food price shocks
Sana Tawfik, Head of Research at Arif Habib Limited, said agricultural losses could shave around 0.2% off gross domestic product (GDP) growth, though reconstruction may provide some offset.
Analysts said flood-driven supply shocks, especially in wheat, rice and vegetables, could keep inflation above the central bank’s 57% target.
Saad Hanif of Ismail Iqbal Securities said food inflation could face “temporary shocks”, with wheat prices up about 50% in a month.
Inflation eased to 3% in August from 4.1% in July, but the finance ministry, which projected 4% to 5%, warned crop losses and extreme weather could soon push prices higher.
“Manufacturers have also raised selling prices, citing higher fuel and transport costs and delays in input deliveries caused by flooding,” said Ahmad Mobeen, Senior Economist at S&P Global Market Intelligence.
The SBP has cut rates by 1,100 basis points since June 2024, when they stood at a record 22% after inflation peaked near 40% in 2023. It last cut rates by 100 bps in May, after a March pause, and held steady in June amid oil price pressures from Middle East tensions.
Still, some see room for cuts
“Real interest rates are still high enough to allow for a cut, especially with the Fed turning dovish, but the floods are inflationary, particularly for food,” said Ammar Habib, an independent analyst.
ADB warns to insure against floods
Meanwhile, an Asian Development Bank (ADB) expert urged Pakistan, and other countries in Asia and the Pacific, to integrate insurance into urban planning to limit flood losses and speed recovery.
Arup Kumar Chatterjee, Principal Financial Sector Specialist at ADB, said on Friday that cities like Lahore in Pakistan and Gurugram, India, face severe flooding risks but remain financially exposed due to poor planning. Streets turn into rivers and homes into ruins, leaving cities in financial peril. “These issues are not random; they are the result of poor planning,” he noted.
“In 2023, natural hazards in Asia and the Pacific caused $65 billion in losses, with 91% of that amount uninsured. In 2024, global insured losses reached $135 billion, showing a huge protection gap of nearly 90%,” wrote Chatterjee.
The ADB official pointed out that ancient cities managed risks better. Mohenjo-Daro in Pakistan and the aqueducts in Rome were designed to withstand floods.
“Today’s approach to disaster management has changed. Governments often focus more on post-disaster relief than on flood prevention. This often leads to different government departments working in isolation and ignoring risk management,” he said.
The cost of neglecting insurance is clear. He pointed out that Bangkok’s 2011 floods caused $47 billion in damage, with only a third insured. Chennai’s 2015 floods brought $3.5 billion in losses, with just 34% covered. Recent storms in Dubai also exposed major gaps.
In contrast, cities that adopt insurance fare better. During Valencia’s 2024 floods, a third of $10 billion in damages was insured. Auckland’s 2023 floods had 40% coverage, allowing 112,000 claims to be processed quickly.
“We have the tools to manage flood risks better, including satellite technology and real-time data analysis. If we can predict floods, we should also be able to finance protection in advance,” stressed Chatterjee.
He urged that insurance be treated as infrastructure. Quick payouts based on rainfall data can help communities recover faster. He urged Pakistan and other governments to make coverage accessible, including for renters and low-income families.
“No major project should proceed without a risk financing plan,” he said, adding that, “Floods are inevitable; the question is whether we can respond quickly enough to prevent despair. Every uninsured project is a risk to taxpayers, costing them in both money and stress. Cities need to embrace insurance as a foundational element of their planning, not as an afterthought.”
The cost of being unprepared, he warned, far outweighs the cost of insurance.
REUTERS WITH ADDITIONAL INPUT FROM OUR CORRESPONDENT
NEW DELHI: People with job cards assigned under Mahatma Gandhi National Rural Guarantee Scheme will be able to get work without disruption when transition takes place to new rural employment framework under Viksit Bharat-Guarantee for Rozgar and Aajeevika Mission (Gramin) Act.Even though exact timeframe is not known yet, rural development ministry officials said the VB-G RAM G scheme will come into force in the coming financial year after the Centre frames and notifies the rules. After govt notifies the Act’s commencement date, states will get six months to make their schemes to enable implementation of the law.To ensure there is no disruption and job guarantee is upheld during transition from MGNREGA, it has been proposed to enable workers to use the same job cards issued under MGNREGA with Aadhaar-based eKYC.The officials said that as of now, around 75% of job cards have been verified with eKYC under the ongoing scheme. Moreover, ongoing projects under MGNREGA, if incomplete when the transition happens to the new scheme, would stay on course.Meanwhile, work is on to frame rules, lay out regulations on normative allocations, fund flow plan, IT framework, a national-level steering panel and social audits.Under the new law, focus will be on transparency to weed out leakages and duplicacy of work,the social audit system will be strengthened, and technology leveraged to create systems to establish work progress, timely wage payment and accountability through ‘e-measurement’ books, sources said. Demand for work will have to be entered on a digital platform. Officials made it clear the new law in no way interferes with demand-driven character of the scheme.
Business
Gurugram Attracts Rs 86,588 Crore In Real Estate Investments In 2025 As RERA Clears 131 Projects
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Alongside rising investments, Gurugram RERA strengthened regulatory oversight to safeguard homebuyer and investor interests
Gurgaon Real Estate (Representative Image)
Gurugram emerged as one of India’s top real estate investment destinations in 2025, with projects worth Rs 86,588 crore receiving regulatory approvals during the year, according to data from the Gurugram Real Estate Regulatory Authority (Gurugram RERA).
Market observers said the numbers reflect strong investor confidence in the NCR’s largest commercial and residential hub.
Gurugram RERA registered 131 projects in calendar year 2025, representing development potential of 35,455 units across housing and commercial segments.
A striking feature of the data was the dominance of large-ticket projects. Just 28 major developments accounted for investments worth Rs 59,360 crore, highlighting the growing influence of institutional capital and large developers in shaping Gurugram’s property market.
Residential assets continued to attract the bulk of investment interest. Of the total units approved, 31,455 were residential, underscoring sustained end-user demand and long-term confidence in the city’s housing fundamentals.
According to Authority data, the residential mix included 17,405 group housing units, 5,720 mixed land use units, 4,040 residential floor units, 2,122 affordable group housing units, 1,954 units under the Deen Dayal housing scheme, and 214 residential plotted colony units.
Market observers said this diversified supply pipeline indicates capital deployment across both premium and mass segments, helping reduce concentration risk and deepen market resilience.
On the commercial side, Gurugram RERA approved about 4,000 commercial units, of which 168 were dedicated to IT parks, reinforcing Gurugram’s position as a preferred hub for technology firms and Global Capability Centres.
Analysts noted that the combination of office-led employment growth and residential expansion continues to make Gurugram attractive for long-term capital deployment.
Industry experts said the scale of investments approved in 2025 highlights Gurugram’s ability to attract capital despite global uncertainty, supported by infrastructure growth, a strong corporate base and an improving regulatory environment.
“With a large pipeline of approved projects and sustained interest from developers and institutional investors, Gurugram is expected to remain a key real estate investment destination in the coming years,” a Gurugram-based real estate expert said.
Tighter regulatory checks
Alongside rising investments, Gurugram RERA strengthened regulatory oversight to enhance transparency and safeguard homebuyer and investor interests.
“These steps included stricter scrutiny of developer submissions, mandatory site inspections by domain experts, and public consultation through mandatory notices before project registration,” an Authority official said.
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January 16, 2026, 07:44 IST
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National Startup Day highlights India’s thriving startup ecosystem, celebrating innovation, entrepreneurship and job creation driven by founders, unicorns and Startup India mission
National Startup Day 2026 honours Indian startups, entrepreneurs and innovators driving economic growth and job creation.
National Startup Day 2026: India’s startup ecosystem has evolved into one of the world’s most vibrant and promising innovation hubs. To recognise the contribution of entrepreneurs, founders and startups transforming ideas into impactful solutions, National Startup Day is observed every year on January 16 across the country.
Launched by Prime Minister Narendra Modi in 2022, the day celebrates visionary entrepreneurs who play a crucial role in economic growth, employment generation and technological advancement.
National Startup Day serves as a reminder that innovation, backed by determination and policy support, can reshape society and create global impact.
National Startup Day 2026 Theme
The official theme for National Startup Day 2026 is yet to be announced. However, the core focus areas are expected to revolve around:
- Innovation and emerging technologies
- Entrepreneurship and leadership
- Self-reliance (Atmanirbhar Bharat)
- Startup India Mission
- Youth empowerment
- Job creation
How Startups Are Shaping India’s Future
India currently ranks as the third-largest startup ecosystem globally, with over 1.59 lakh startups recognised by the Department for Promotion of Industry and Internal Trade (DPIIT) as of early 2025. Backed by 100+ unicorns, the ecosystem continues to grow rapidly.
Metro cities such as Bengaluru, Hyderabad, Mumbai and Delhi-NCR lead this expansion, while Tier-2 and Tier-3 cities are emerging as new innovation centres, adding diversity and scale to India’s entrepreneurial journey.
Startups across fintech, edtech, health-tech, e-commerce and deep-tech are addressing real-world challenges and gaining global recognition. Technologies like artificial intelligence, blockchain and IoT are increasingly driving innovation, according to Startup India ecosystem reports.
Industry-Wise Startup Impact
DPIIT-recognised startups have generated over 16.6 lakh direct jobs across sectors as of October 31, 2024, strengthening India’s employment landscape.
- IT Services: 2.04 lakh jobs
- Healthcare & Life Sciences: 1.47 lakh jobs
- Commercial & Professional Services: 94,000 jobs
Through the Startup India initiative, the government continues to focus on skill development, funding access, ecosystem collaboration and global outreach.
Key Initiatives Under Startup India
- Capacity building and mentorship
- Outreach and awareness programmes
- Ecosystem development events
- International exposure and global linkages
- Collaboration between startups, corporates and institutions.
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January 16, 2026, 07:00 IST
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