Business
SBP to hold rate as floods fuel inflation | The Express Tribune
KARACHI:
Pakistan’s central bank is expected to keep its key rate steady on Monday, a Reuters poll showed, as floods that ravaged farmland and threaten fresh food inflation prompt policymakers to extend their pause on monetary easing.
Thirteen of 14 analysts surveyed forecast the State Bank of Pakistan (SBP) will hold its policy rate at 11%, while one projected a 50 basis-point cut.
Since late June, floods have swamped Punjab’s farmland, disrupting supply chains and stoking inflation fears, with nearly 950 people killed, 6,500 livestock lost, 8,200 houses destroyed and 4.5 million displaced as waters move south.
“Given the uncertainty, we expect the central bank may pause in September, though our base case allows for a 50100 bps cut by year-end,” said Waqas Ghani, Head of Research at JS Global Capital.
Analysts flag GDP hit, food price shocks
Sana Tawfik, Head of Research at Arif Habib Limited, said agricultural losses could shave around 0.2% off gross domestic product (GDP) growth, though reconstruction may provide some offset.
Analysts said flood-driven supply shocks, especially in wheat, rice and vegetables, could keep inflation above the central bank’s 57% target.
Saad Hanif of Ismail Iqbal Securities said food inflation could face “temporary shocks”, with wheat prices up about 50% in a month.
Inflation eased to 3% in August from 4.1% in July, but the finance ministry, which projected 4% to 5%, warned crop losses and extreme weather could soon push prices higher.
“Manufacturers have also raised selling prices, citing higher fuel and transport costs and delays in input deliveries caused by flooding,” said Ahmad Mobeen, Senior Economist at S&P Global Market Intelligence.
The SBP has cut rates by 1,100 basis points since June 2024, when they stood at a record 22% after inflation peaked near 40% in 2023. It last cut rates by 100 bps in May, after a March pause, and held steady in June amid oil price pressures from Middle East tensions.
Still, some see room for cuts
“Real interest rates are still high enough to allow for a cut, especially with the Fed turning dovish, but the floods are inflationary, particularly for food,” said Ammar Habib, an independent analyst.
ADB warns to insure against floods
Meanwhile, an Asian Development Bank (ADB) expert urged Pakistan, and other countries in Asia and the Pacific, to integrate insurance into urban planning to limit flood losses and speed recovery.
Arup Kumar Chatterjee, Principal Financial Sector Specialist at ADB, said on Friday that cities like Lahore in Pakistan and Gurugram, India, face severe flooding risks but remain financially exposed due to poor planning. Streets turn into rivers and homes into ruins, leaving cities in financial peril. “These issues are not random; they are the result of poor planning,” he noted.
“In 2023, natural hazards in Asia and the Pacific caused $65 billion in losses, with 91% of that amount uninsured. In 2024, global insured losses reached $135 billion, showing a huge protection gap of nearly 90%,” wrote Chatterjee.
The ADB official pointed out that ancient cities managed risks better. Mohenjo-Daro in Pakistan and the aqueducts in Rome were designed to withstand floods.
“Today’s approach to disaster management has changed. Governments often focus more on post-disaster relief than on flood prevention. This often leads to different government departments working in isolation and ignoring risk management,” he said.
The cost of neglecting insurance is clear. He pointed out that Bangkok’s 2011 floods caused $47 billion in damage, with only a third insured. Chennai’s 2015 floods brought $3.5 billion in losses, with just 34% covered. Recent storms in Dubai also exposed major gaps.
In contrast, cities that adopt insurance fare better. During Valencia’s 2024 floods, a third of $10 billion in damages was insured. Auckland’s 2023 floods had 40% coverage, allowing 112,000 claims to be processed quickly.
“We have the tools to manage flood risks better, including satellite technology and real-time data analysis. If we can predict floods, we should also be able to finance protection in advance,” stressed Chatterjee.
He urged that insurance be treated as infrastructure. Quick payouts based on rainfall data can help communities recover faster. He urged Pakistan and other governments to make coverage accessible, including for renters and low-income families.
“No major project should proceed without a risk financing plan,” he said, adding that, “Floods are inevitable; the question is whether we can respond quickly enough to prevent despair. Every uninsured project is a risk to taxpayers, costing them in both money and stress. Cities need to embrace insurance as a foundational element of their planning, not as an afterthought.”
The cost of being unprepared, he warned, far outweighs the cost of insurance.
REUTERS WITH ADDITIONAL INPUT FROM OUR CORRESPONDENT
Last Updated:
The last date to file income tax returns (ITR) for individuals not subject to a tax audit for FY 2024-25 (AY 2025-26) is September 15, 2025
ITR 2025
The last date to file income tax returns (ITR) for individuals not subject to a tax audit for FY 2024-25 (AY 2025-26) is September 15, 2025. Taxpayers can file their returns directly on the income tax department’s e-filing portal free of cost, either on their own or with the help of a Chartered Accountant (CA).
Paid Options on Third-Party Platforms
Apart from the government portal, several private websites offer ITR filing services for a fee. While filing on the official portal is free, professional assistance through CAs or specialised tax platforms usually comes at a cost. Charges depend on the number of income sources, the complexity of the return, and the level of assistance chosen.
Types of Filing Plans
Most online platforms broadly provide three options:
- Self-filing, where taxpayers upload documents and complete the process themselves with basic backend support.
- Assisted filing, which uses automated systems designed with CA inputs to guide taxpayers.
- CA-assisted filing, where a tax expert or CA helps directly, often via call or video consultation.
Charges Across Platforms
For AY 2025-26, fees for CA-assisted filing vary across six popular portals. Plans range from entry-level packages to premium offerings, such as ClearTax’s luxe plan priced at ₹25,000, which provides end-to-end filing support, round-the-clock assistance, and live sessions.
Calls for Extension of Deadline
Meanwhile, industry associations have sought more time for taxpayers. The Karnataka State Chartered Accountants Association (KSCAA), Advocates Tax Bar Association (ATBA), and the Central Council (CIRC) of the Institute of Chartered Accountants of India (ICAI) have written to Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman, citing persistent issues on the ITR portal.
Both ICAI and ATBA have urged the government to extend deadlines. ATBA has suggested October 15, 2025, as the new deadline for non-audit ITR filings, and November 30, 2025, for submission of tax audit reports.
Aparna Deb is a Subeditor and writes for the business vertical of News18.com. She has a nose for news that matters. She is inquisitive and curious about things. Among other things, financial markets, economy, a…Read More
Aparna Deb is a Subeditor and writes for the business vertical of News18.com. She has a nose for news that matters. She is inquisitive and curious about things. Among other things, financial markets, economy, a… Read More
September 13, 2025, 10:28 IST
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Dan WhitworthReporter, Radio 4 Money Box
Andrea PatersonNew analysis suggests seven million households are missing out on £24bn of financial help and support because of unclaimed benefits and social tariffs.
The research from Policy in Practice, a social policy and data analytics company, says awareness, complexity and stigma are the main barriers stopping people claiming.
This analysis covers benefits across England, Scotland and Wales such as universal credit and pension credit, local authority help including free school meals and council tax support, as well as social tariffs from water, energy and broadband providers.
The government said it ran public campaigns to promote benefits and pointed to the free Help to Claim service.
Andrea Paterson in London persuaded her mum, Sally, to apply for attendance allowance on behalf of her dad, Ian, last December after hearing about the benefit on Radio 4’s Money Box.
Ian, who died in May, was in poor health at the time and he and Sally qualified for the higher rate of attendance allowance of £110 per week, which made a huge difference to their finances, according to Andrea.
“£110 per week is a lot of money and they weren’t getting the winter fuel payment anymore,” she said.
“So the first words that came out of Mum’s mouth were ‘well, that will make up for losing the winter fuel payment’, which [was] great.
“All pensioners worry about money, everyone in that generation worries about money. I think it eased that worry a little bit and it did allow them to keep the house [warmer].”
Unclaimed benefits increasing
In its latest report, Policy in Practice estimates that £24.1bn in benefits and social tariffs will go unclaimed in 2025-26.
It previously estimated that £23bn would go unclaimed in 2024-25, and £19bn the year before that, although this year’s calculations are more detailed than ever before.
“There are three main barriers to claiming – awareness, complexity and stigma,” said Deven Ghelani, founder and chief executive of Policy in Practice.
“With awareness people just don’t know these benefits exist or, if they do know about them, they just immediately assume they won’t qualify.
“Then you’ve got complexity, so being able to complete the form, being able to provide the evidence to be able to claim. Maybe you can do that once but actually you have to do it three, four, five , six, seven times depending on the support you’re potentially eligible for and people just run out of steam.
“Then you’ve got stigma. People are made to feel it’s not for them or they don’t trust the organisation administering that support.”
Although a lot of financial support is going unclaimed, the report does point to progress being made.
More older people are now claiming pension credit, with that number expected to continue to rise.
Some local authorities are reaching 95% of students eligible for free school meals because of better use of data.
Gateway benefits
Government figures show it is forecast to spend £316.1bn in 2025-26 on the social security system in England, Scotland and Wales, accounting for 10.6% of GDP and 23.5% of the total amount the government spends.
Responding to criticism that the benefits bill is already too large, Mr Ghelani said: “The key thing is you can’t rely on the system being too complicated to save money.
“On the one hand you’ve designed these systems to get support to people and then you’re making it hard to claim. That doesn’t make any sense.”
A government spokesperson said: “We’re making sure everyone gets the support they are entitled to by promoting benefits through public campaigns and funding the free Help to Claim service.
“We are also developing skills and opening up opportunities so more people can move into good, secure jobs, while ensuring the welfare system is there for those who need it.”
The advice if you think you might be eligible is to claim, especially for support like pension credit, known as a gateway benefit, which can lead to other financial help for those who are struggling.
Robin, from Greater Manchester, told the BBC that being able to claim pension credit was vital to his finances.
“Pension credit is essential to me to enable me to survive financially,” he said.
[But] because I’m on pension credit I get council tax exemption, I also get free dental treatment, a contribution to my spectacles and I get the warm home discount scheme as well.”
The past two weeks have been dreadful for Jaguar Land Rover (JLR), and the crisis at the car maker shows no sign of coming to an end.
A cyber attack, which first came to light on 1 September, forced the manufacturer to shut down its computer systems and close production lines worldwide.
Its factories in Solihull, Halewood, and Wolverhampton are expected to remain idle until at least Wednesday, as the company continues to assess the damage.
JLR is thought to have lost at least £50m so far as a result of the stoppage. But experts say the most serious damage is being done to its network of suppliers, many of whom are small and medium sized businesses.
The government is now facing calls for a furlough scheme to be set up, to prevent widespread job losses.
David Bailey, professor of business economics at Aston University, told the BBC: “There’s anywhere up to a quarter of a million people in the supply chain for Jaguar Land Rover.
“So if there’s a knock-on effect from this closure, we could see companies going under and jobs being lost”.
Under normal circumstances, JLR would expect to build more than 1,000 vehicles a day, many of them at its UK plants in Solihull and Halewood. Engines are assembled at its Wolverhampton site. The company also has large car factories in China and Slovakia, as well as a smaller facility in India.
JLR said it closed down its IT networks deliberately in order to protect them from damage. However, because its production and parts supply systems are heavily automated, this meant cars simply could not be built.
Sales were also heavily disrupted, though workarounds have since been put in place to allow dealerships to operate.
Initially, the carmaker seemed relatively confident the issue could be resolved quickly.
Nearly two weeks on, it has become abundantly clear that restarting its computer systems has been a far from simple process. It has already admitted that some data may have been seen or stolen, and it has been working with the National Cyber Security Centre to investigate the incident.
Experts say the cost to JLR itself is likely to be between £5m and £10m per day, meaning it has already lost between £50m and £100m. However, the company made a pre-tax profit of £2.5bn in the year to the end of March, which implies it has the financial muscle to weather a crisis that lasts weeks rather than months.
JLR sits at the top of a pyramid of suppliers, many of whom are highly dependent on the carmaker because it is their main customer.
They include a large number of small and medium-sized firms, which do not have the resources to cope with an extended interruption to their business.
“Some of them will go bust. I would not be at all surprised to see bankruptcies,” says Andy Palmer, a one-time senior executive at Nissan and former boss of Aston Martin.
He believes suppliers will have begun cutting their headcount dramatically in order to keep costs down.
Mr Palmer says: “You hold back in the first week or so of a shutdown. You bear those losses.
“But then, you go into the second week, more information becomes available – then you cut hard. So layoffs are either already happening, or are being planned.”
A boss at one smaller JLR supplier, who preferred not to be named, confirmed his firm had already laid off 40 people, nearly half of its workforce.
Meanwhile, other companies are continuing to tell their employees to remain at home with the hours they are not working to be “banked”, to be offset against holidays or overtime at a later date.
There seems little expectation of a swift return to work.
One employee at a major supplier based in the West Midlands told the BBC they were not expecting to be back on the shop floor until 29 September. Hundreds of staff, they say, had been told to remain at home.
When automotive firms cut back, temporary workers brought in to cover busy periods are usually the first to go.
There is generally a reluctance to get rid of permanent staff, as they often have skills that are difficult to replace. But if cashflow dries up, they may have little choice.
Labour MP Liam Byrne, who chairs the Commons Business and Trade Committee, says this means government help is needed.
“What began in some online systems is now rippling through the supply chain, threatening a cashflow crunch that could turn a short-term shock into long-term harm”, he says.
“We cannot afford to see a cornerstone of our advanced manufacturing base weakened by events beyond its control”.
The trade union Unite has called for a furlough system to be set up to help automotive suppliers. This would involve the government subsidising workers’ pay packets while they are unable to do their jobs, taking the burden off their employers.
“Thousands of these workers in JLR’s supply chain now find their jobs are under an immediate threat because of the cyber attack,” says Unite general secretary, Sharon Graham.
“Ministers need to act fast and introduce a furlough scheme to ensure that vital jobs and skills are not lost while JLR and its supply chain get back on track.”
Business and Trade Minister Chris Bryant said: “We recognise the significant impact this incident has had on JLR and their suppliers, and I know this is a worrying time for those affected.
“I met with the chief executive of JLR yesterday to discuss the impact of the incident. We are also in daily contact with the company and our cyber experts about resolving this issue.”
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