Business
Gold price prediction: Why are gold prices rallying again and what’s the outlook? Top levels investors should watch out for – The Times of India
Gold price prediction: Gold prices are rallying again on the hopes of US Federal Reserve rate cut expectations, and China’s gold buying. However, Praveen Singh, Senior Fundamental Research Analyst- Currencies and Commodities at Mirae Asset Sharekhan recommends buying the dip, rather than chasing the rally. The analyst shares his views on gold price outlook and what levels investors should watch out for:Gold Performance:
- Although expectations of the ongoing US shutdown ending soon boosted risk appetite, spot gold extended its Friday’s rally to surge sharply higher on Monday on the Fed rate cut expectations, wobbly US Dollar and China’s Central Bank adding gold reserves for 12th month in a row in October.
- Gold gained on inflation concerns also as President Donald Trump once again floated the idea of sending Americans rebate checks of at least $2000 a person (excluding high income people) for the tariffs that his administration has collected.
- At the time of writing this article, spot gold was trading with a huge daily gain of 2.34% at $4,096, while
MCX Gold December contract at Rs 123,707 was up 2.07%. - In the week ending November 7, spot gold prices posted a weekly loss of $1 to close at $4001, which amounts to a third straight weekly loss per se.
US Shutdown likely to end:
- On November 9, the US Senate advanced a plan to end the longest-ever US government shutdown that entered the week. A faction of moderate democrats defied their party leaders and voted to support a deal to end the ongoing shutdown.
- As flight disruptions have worsened due heavy snow, the ongoing shutdown may intensify the stress on the US air-traffic system ahead of the busy Thanksgiving travel period as controllers may have to continue to work without pay checks.
Fedspeak:
- Federal Reserve Bank of St Louis President Musalem expects the US economy to bounce back strongly early next year due to rate cuts, fiscal support, deregulation and the government shutdown ending. He urged the Fed officials to be cautious on additional rate cuts as he thinks that the current Fed policy is close to the level where it would not put any downward pressure on inflation.
- On the contrary, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco President Mary Daly warned against keeping interest rates too high for too long due to softening labour market and moderating wage growth.
US Dollar Index and yields:
- At the time of writing this article, the US Dollar Index at 99.72 was up around 0.15% for the day. Day’s low has been 99.45.
- Ten-year US yields at 4.11% were up by around 1.50 bps, while 2-year yields at 3.59% were up by around 3 bps.
US Data roundup:
- US employment report has not been published in November, which makes it the second month without a national employment report.
- Bloomberg estimates that depending on the US government reopening date, September employment report may be published on November 19/November 26. Even then the report may not offer true picture due to uncertainty over Federal government employment figures. Other reports will also be delayed.
- October CPI report may not be released though.
- Data released in the week ending November 7 were largely mixed as US ISM manufacturing trailed the forecast and contracted for the seventh straight month in October, while ISM services at 52.40 beat the forecast of 50.80 to rise at the fastest pace since February.
- University of Michigan Consumer sentiment fell from 53.60 in October to 50.30 in November, near record-low and even lower than 2008 global financial crisis and Covid levels.
- It is to be noted that ADP data released last week showed that US companies added 42K jobs in October, which signalled a moderate stabilization in the US job market. Challenger job cuts report showed almost 950,000 US job cuts this year through September, the highest year-to-date total since 2020.
Gold ETFs and COMEX inventory:
- Total known global gold ETF holdings rose for two straight days through November 7 to 97.24 MOz, though were down for the third consecutive weeks. Nonetheless, holdings are up 17.36% this year and are hovering around 3-year high level.
- China’s domestic gold ETF holdings rose by 79.015 tons in January to September period, which is a steep rise compared to the 29.927 tons-gain during the same period last year.
- COMEX gold eligible inventory at 17.94Moz is around the lowest level since April.
China’s Central Bank buys gold for the 12th month in a row:
- China’s official gold reserves stood at 74.09 MOz at the end of October, up from 74.06 MOz a month earlier, which means that PBoC bought nearly one ton of gold in October.
- Uzbekistan’s gold reserves reached $47.85 billion October, a record high for the fourth straight month.
China’s gold consumption dips:
- According to a statement from the China Gold Association, the nation’s gold consumption dropped 7.95% y-o-y to 682.73 tons in the January-September period.
Gold Price Outlook:
- A possible end to the US government shutdown has turned investors’ attention back to the Fed rate expectations in October as the upcoming US data may show deteriorating economy.
- Gold is benefiting due to China extending its buying spree and inflation concerns, too.
- However, steady US yields and Dollar may limit the gains barring
- In the very short-term, gold is expected to test the strong resistance around $4160, a successful breach of which would open the way to test the resistance in $4190-$4200 zone.
- Dip buying is preferred over chasing the rally.
- Support is at $4075/$4025/$3990.
Silver: Sharply up
- MCX Silver December contract surged to 153,650, up 4% for the day.
- The metal may test the resistance around Rs 158,500 as it has taken out the strong resistance at $49.30 (Rs 150,000), which will act as a support now.
- Next support comes in at $48.50 (Rs 148,000).
- Dip buying is preferred over chasing the current rally.
(Disclaimer: Recommendations and views on the stock market, other asset classes or personal finance management tips given by experts are their own. These opinions do not represent the views of The Times of India)
Business
India opposes China-led IFD pact’s inclusion; flags risks to WTO framework and core principles – The Times of India
India on Saturday said it has strongly opposed the China-led Investment Facilitation for Development (IFD) Agreement being incorporated into the World Trade Organisation (WTO) framework, flagging concerns over its systemic implications, PTI reported.The issue was raised at the ongoing 14th ministerial conference (MC14) of the WTO in Yaounde, Cameroon, where Commerce and Industry Minister Piyush Goyal said such a move could weaken the institution’s foundational structure.“Incorporation of the IFD agreement risks eroding the functional limits of the WTO and undermining its foundational principles,” Goyal said in a social media post.“At #WTOMC14, drawing inspiration from Mahatma Gandhi ji’s philosophy of Truth prevailing over conformity, India showed the courage to stand alone on the contentious issue of the IFD Agreement and did not agree to its incorporation into the WTO framework as an Annex 4 Agreement,” he said.Annex 4 of the WTO Agreement contains Plurilateral Trade Agreements that are binding only on members that have accepted them, unlike multilateral agreements which apply to all members.Goyal said that as part of WTO reform discussions, members are deliberating on guardrails and legal safeguards for plurilateral agreements before integrating any such outcomes into the framework.“In view of the systemic issue at hand, India showed openness to have good faith, comprehensive discussions and constructive engagement under the WTO Reform Agenda,” he added.India had also opposed the pact during the WTO’s 13th ministerial conference (MC13) in Abu Dhabi.The Investment Facilitation for Development proposal was first mooted in 2017 by China and a group of countries that rely significantly on Chinese investments, including those with sovereign wealth funds. The agreement, if adopted, would be binding only on signatory members.
Vijaypat Singhania, former Raymond chairman, Padma Bhushan awardee and noted aviator, has passed away.He died in Mumbai at the age of 87.His son Gautam Singhania, chairman and managing director of the Raymond Group, announced the death on microblogging platform X.A company spokesperson said Singhania passed away “peacefully” and his last rites will be performed on Sunday, reported PTI.A recipient of the Padma Bhushan, Vijaypat Singhania was known not only for his leadership at Raymond but also for his passion for aviation. He held a world record for achieving the highest altitude in a hot air balloon.He led Raymond as chairman for around two decades until 2000, after which he handed over the reins of the company to Gautam Singhania. He had also transferred his entire 37 per cent stake in the company to his son.Vijaypat Singhania and Gautam Singhania were later involved in legal disputes, which were subsequently resolved.
Business
Middle East crisis: Jubilant FoodWorks reports some Domino’s outlets affected by LPG shortage – The Times of India
Jubilant FoodWorks Ltd (JFL), which operates Domino’s Pizza and Dunkin Donuts in India, has reported constraints in LPG cylinder supplies across parts of its store network due to the ongoing West Asia war, according to ET.In a filing to the BSE, the company said, “Operational impact at this stage is limited and being actively managed. The company is taking several steps to conserve LPG and working overtime to move to alternate energy sources like electricity and piped natural gas (PNG).”It added that it is in continuous touch with oil marketing companies to track developments and respond to the evolving situation. “The company is in constant engagement with oil marketing companies (OMCs) to remain apprised of the latest developments and plan operational responses accordingly, given the rapidly evolving nature of the situation,” the filing said.The company noted that it is closely monitoring the situation as supply disruptions persist.The impact is being felt across the restaurant industry, with several chains facing similar challenges due to LPG shortages.On March 10, the National Restaurant Association of India (NRAI) had advised its five lakh members to consider shorter operating hours, reduce items requiring long cooking times or deep frying, and adopt fuel-saving measures such as using lids while cooking, in view of supply constraints linked to the Gulf war.
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