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Trump wants Venezuela’s oil. Will his plan work?

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Trump wants Venezuela’s oil. Will his plan work?


Archie Mitchell,Business reporterand

Natalie Sherman,Business reporter

Reuters A flame burning natural gas at an oil treatment plant operated by Venezuela's state oil company PDVSAReuters

Donald Trump has vowed to tap into Venezuela’s oil reserves after seizing President Nicolás Maduro and outlining plans to “run” the country.

The US president wants American oil firms to pile billions of dollars into the South American country, which has the largest crude oil reserves on the planet, to mobilise the largely untapped resource.

He said US companies will fix Venezuela’s “badly broken” oil infrastructure and “start making money for the country”.

But experts warned of huge challenges with Trump’s plan, saying it would cost billions and take up to a decade to produce a meaningful uplift in oil output.

So can the US really take control of Venezuela’s oil reserves? And will Trump’s plan work?

How much oil does Venezuela have?

It is true that with an estimated 303 billion barrels, Venezuela is home to the world’s largest proven oil reserves.

But the amount of oil the country actually produces today is tiny by comparison.

Output has dropped off sharply since the early 2000s, as former President Hugo Chavez and then the Maduro administration tightened control over the state-run oil company, PDVSA, leading to an exodus of more experienced staff.

Though some Western oil firms, including the US company Chevron, are still active in the country, their operations have shrunk significantly as the US has widened sanctions and targeted oil exports, aiming to curb Maduro’s access to a key economic lifeline.

Sanctions – which the US first put in place in 2015 during President Barack Obama’s administration over alleged human rights violations – have also left the country largely cut off from the investment and the parts it needs.

“The real challenge they’ve got is their infrastructure,” says Callum Macpherson, head of commodities at Investec.

In November, Venezuela produced an estimated 860,000 barrels per day, according to the latest oil market report from the International Energy Agency.

That is barely a third of what it was 10 years ago and accounts for less than 1% of world oil consumption.

The country’s oil reserves are made up of so-called “heavy, sour” oil. It is harder to refine, but useful for making diesel and asphalt. The US typically produces “light, sweet” oil used to make petrol.

In the run-up to the strikes and capture of Maduro, the US also seized two oil tankers off the coast of Venezuela, as well as ordering a blockade of sanctioned tankers entering and leaving the country.

What are the challenges for oil firms?

Homayoun Falakshahi, senior commodity analyst at data platform Kpler, said the key hurdles for oil firms hoping to exploit Venezuelan reserves are legal and political.

Speaking to the BBC, he said those hoping to drill in Venezuela would need an agreement with the government, which will not be possible until Maduro’s successor is in place.

Companies would then be left gambling billions of investment on the stability of a future Venezuelan government, Mr Falakshahi added.

“Even if the political situation is stable, it’s a process that takes months,” he said. Companies hoping to take advantage of Trump’s plan would need to sign contracts with the new government when it is in place, before beginning the process of ramping up investment in infrastructure in Venezuela.

Analysts have also warned it would take tens of billions of dollars – and potentially a decade – to restore Venezuela’s former output.

Could the plan lower global oil prices?

Neil Shearing, group chief economist at Capital Economics, said Trump’s plans would have a limited impact on the global supply, and therefore price, of oil.

He told the BBC there are “an enormous number of hurdles to overcome and the timeframe of what is going to happen is so long” that oil prices in 2026 would likely see little change.

Mr Shearing said firms would not invest until a stable government is in place in Venezuela, and the projects would not deliver for “many, many years”.

“The issue has always been decades of underinvestment, mismanagement and it is really expensive to extract,” he said.

He added that even if the country could return to previous production levels of around 3 million barrels per day, it would still be outside the world’s top 10 producers.

And Mr Shearing pointed to high production among OPEC+ countries, saying the world is currently “not suffering from a shortage of oil”.

A map of Venezuela showing its borders with Colombia, Brazil and Guyana. Inside the Venezuela section of the map it shows main oil pupelines and oilfields. The Orinaco Belt in the central area is outlined.

What have the oil companies said?

Chevron is the only American oil producer still active in Venezuela, after receiving a licence under former President Joe Biden in 2022 to operate, despite US sanctions.

The company, currently responsible for around a fifth of Venezuelan oil extraction, said it is focused on the safety of its employees and is complying “with all relevant laws and regulations”.

Other major oil firms have been publicly silent on the plans so far, with only Chevron addressing the situation.

But Mr Falakshahi said oil bosses will be in talks internally about whether to take advantage of the opportunity.

He added: “The appetite to go somewhere is linked to two main factors, the political situation and the resources on the ground.”

Despite the hugely uncertain political situation, Mr Falakshahi said “the potential prize may be deemed too big to avoid”.



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Oil prices slide on hopes of US-Iran peace deal

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Oil prices slide on hopes of US-Iran peace deal



Trump said on Saturday that an agreement would include the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, without giving further details.



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Shop numbers return to growth after years of decline, say experts

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Shop numbers return to growth after years of decline, say experts


UK high streets and shopping destinations are showing signs of recovery as more than 13 retail stores opened each week over the past year, according to new figures.

However, England and Wales have still seen more than 6,000 retail premises vanish from local communities over the past five years.

Analysis of Valuation Office Agency data by tax firm Ryan, found that there were 507,810 retail premises across England and Wales at the end of 2025.

It said the figures showed that a recent contraction across the sector has appeared to stabilise, with a 723 net increase in the number of retail stores compared with a year earlier.

Property numbers increased across every region of England and Wales, with the exception of the North West, which saw a decline of 41.

It suggests that parts of the sector are now beginning to rebalance following significant structural contraction seen since the pandemic.

The creation of new retail units also comes as many retail real estate firms, such as Hammerson, have turned empty large units, often former department stores, into a greater number of smaller units.

Other retail groups, such as John Lewis, have moved away from ambitions to transform some retail property for other uses such as rental accommodation.

Nevertheless, the retail sector is still facing pressure from higher business rates for many firms, increased labour costs and concerns over consumer sentiment.

The data also shows that there has also been significant decline over the past few years, with a net reduction of 6,045 retail properties since the end of 2020.

London recorded the largest five-year regional reduction, with 1,266 retail premises disappearing over the period, followed by the South East (-1,191), North West (-719) and North East (-672).

The figures show retail premises which have permanently disappeared from communities altogether, having either been demolished or converted for alternative use.

The figures come as Ryan’s 2026 annual business rates review highlighted that the retail sector saw a 9.3% increase in rateable values at the 2026 business rates revaluation despite the major shift in the retail landscape since the pandemic.

The retail sector is still facing pressure from higher business rates for many firms, increased labour costs and concerns over consumer sentiment (Louisa Collins-Marsh/PA) (PA Archive)

Alex Probyn, practice leader for Europe and Asia-Pacific property tax at Ryan, said: “The pandemic accelerated structural changes that were already emerging across the retail sector, including changing consumer behaviour, hybrid working patterns and a reduced reliance on traditional retail floorspace in many locations.

“Many locations were arguably over-retailed before Covid and high streets have evolved towards more mixed-use environments, with retail space being rebalanced alongside growing demand for residential, leisure, hospitality and service-led uses.

“The revaluation outcome does suggest a large proportion of retail premises have seen bigger increases in their assessments than underlying market conditions and rental evidence would have led occupiers to expect.

“Retailers should therefore carefully review and, where appropriate, challenge their assessments.”



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Indians cut overseas travel spending to $1.9 billion in March: RBI

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Indians cut overseas travel spending to .9 billion in March: RBI


Indians sharply cut back on overseas travel spending in March, with remittances for foreign trips dropping by more than $212 million from the previous month, according to Reserve Bank of India data. The fall in outbound travel expenditure came amid rising oil prices linked to the Middle East conflict and persistent pressure on rupee, even as travel remained the single largest component of outward remittances under the Liberalised Remittance Scheme (LRS).In March, travel-related remittances fell to $1.09 billion from $1.3 billion in February and $1.65 billion in January. The decline came at a time when the West Asia conflict pushed oil prices higher and weakened rupee to record lows. Amid the situation, Prime Minister Narendra Modi urged citizens to cut down on foreign travel and adopt measures such as carpooling. Lower overseas travel spending could reduce foreign exchange outflows and help ease pressure on rupee.According to the RBI’s data on outward remittances by resident individuals, travel continued to account for the largest share of money sent abroad under the LRS in March. Total remittances during the month stood at $2.59 billion.The RBI tracks overseas spending across categories including travel, studies abroad, maintenance of close relatives, overseas investments, and property purchases. Under the LRS framework, resident individuals, including minors, can remit up to $250,000 in a financial year for permitted current or capital account transactions.Within the travel segment, the biggest component remained the ‘other travel’ category, which covers holiday spending and international credit card settlements. Indians spent $623.05 million under this category in March, accounting for nearly 57 per cent of total travel-related remittances during the month.Expenditure linked to education travel, including hostel and fee payments, stood at $450.16 million. Business travel, pilgrimage, and overseas medical treatment together accounted for $21.39 million.The data also showed a rise in remittances meant for the maintenance of close relatives abroad. Such transfers increased to $389.78 million in March from $266.18 million in February.At the same time, spending under the ‘studies abroad’ category declined. This category includes payments made for educational services accessed remotely without travelling overseas, such as correspondence courses. Remittances under this head stood at $151.71 million in March, compared to $175.68 million in February and $267.42 million in January.For the financial year 2024-25, Indians remitted a total of $29.56 billion under the LRS. Travel made up the largest portion of this amount at $16.96 billion.The RBI figures further showed that investments by Indians in overseas equity and debt instruments rose significantly to $440.22 million in March from $265.99 million in February.Meanwhile, outward remittances for the purchase of immovable property overseas declined to $38.68 million in March, down from $51.36 million a month earlier.



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