Business
Wall Street braced for a private credit meltdown. The risk of one is rising
The sudden collapse last fall of a string of American companies backed by private credit has thrust a fast-growing and opaque corner of Wall Street lending into the spotlight.
Private credit, also known as direct lending, is a catch-all term for lending done by nonbank institutions. The practice has been around for decades but surged in popularity after post-2008 financial crisis regulations discouraged banks from serving riskier borrowers.
That growth — from $3.4 trillion in 2025 to an estimated $4.9 trillion by 2029 — and the September bankruptcies of auto-industry firms Tricolor and First Brands have emboldened some prominent Wall Street figures to raise alarms about the asset class.
JPMorgan Chase CEO Jamie Dimon warned in October that problems in credit are rarely isolated: “When you see one cockroach, there are probably more.” Billionaire bond investor Jeffrey Gundlach a month later accused private lenders of making “garbage loans” and predicted that the next financial crisis will come from private credit.
While fears about private credit have subsided in recent weeks in the absence of more high-profile bankruptcies or losses disclosed by banks, they haven’t lifted completely.
Companies that are most linked to the asset class, such as Blue Owl Capital, as well as alternative asset giants Blackstone and KKR, still trade well below their recent highs.
The rise of private credit
Private credit is “lightly regulated, less transparent, opaque, and it’s growing really fast, which doesn’t necessarily mean there’s a problem in the financial system, but it is a necessary condition for one,” Moody’s Analytics chief economist Mark Zandi said in an interview.
Private credit’s boosters, such as Apollo co-founder Marc Rowan, have said that the rise of private credit has fueled American economic growth by filling the gap left by banks, served investors with good returns and made the broader financial system more resilient.
Big investors including pensions and insurance companies with long-term liabilities are seen as better sources of capital for multiyear corporate loans than banks funded by short-term deposits, which can be flighty, private credit operators told CNBC.
But concerns about private credit — which tend to come from the sector’s competitors in public debt — are understandable given its attributes.
After all, it’s the asset managers making private credit loans that are the ones valuing them, and they can be motivated to delay the recognition of potential borrower problems.
“The double-edged sword of private credit” is that the lenders have “really strong incentives to monitor for problems,” said Duke Law professor Elisabeth de Fontenay.
“But by the same token … they do in fact have incentives to try to disguise risk, if they think or hope that there might be some way out of it down the road,” she said.
De Fontenay, who has studied the impact of private equity and debt on corporate America, said her biggest concern is that it’s difficult to know if private lenders are accurately marking their loans, she said.
“This is a market that is extraordinarily large and that is reaching more and more businesses, and yet it’s not a public market,” she said. “We’re not entirely sure if the valuations are correct.”
In the November collapse of home improvement firm Renovo, for instance, BlackRock and other private lenders deemed its debt to be worth 100 cents on the dollar until shortly before marking it down to zero.
Defaults among private loans are expected to rise this year, especially as signs of stress among less creditworthy borrowers emerge, according to a Kroll Bond Rating Agency report.
And private credit borrowers are increasingly relying on payment-in-kind options to forestall defaulting on loans, according to Bloomberg, which cited valuation firm Lincoln International and its own data analysis.
Ironically, while they are competitors, part of the private credit boom has been funded by banks themselves.
Finance frenemies
After investment bank Jefferies, JPMorgan and Fifth Third disclosed losses tied to the auto industry bankruptcies in the fall, investors learned the extent of this form of lending. Bank loans to non-depository financial institutions, or NDFIs, reached $1.14 trillion last year, per the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
On Jan. 13, JPMorgan disclosed for the first time its lending to nonbank financial firms as part of its fourth-quarter earnings presentation. The category tripled to about $160 billion in loans in 2025 from about $50 billion in 2018.
Banks are now “back in the game” because deregulation under the Trump administration will free up capital for them to expand lending, Moody’s Zandi said. That, combined with newer entrants in private credit, might lead to lower loan underwriting standards, he said.
“You’re seeing a lot of competition now for the same type of lending,” Zandi said. “If history is any guide, that’s a concern … because it probably argues for a weakening in underwriting and ultimately bigger credit problems down the road.”
While neither Zandi nor de Fontenay said they saw an imminent collapse in the sector, as private credit continues to grow, so will its importance to the U.S. financial system.
When banks hit turbulence because of the loans they made, there is an established regulatory playbook, but future problems in the private realm might be harder to resolve, according to de Fontenay.
“It raises broader questions from the perspective of the safety and soundness of the overall system,” de Fontenay said. “Are we going to know enough to know when there are signs of problems before they actually occur?”
Business
Budget 2026: Fiscal deficit, capex, borrowing and debt roadmap among key numbers to track – The Times of India
Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman is set to present her record ninth straight Union Budget, with markets closely tracking headline numbers ranging from the fiscal deficit and capital expenditure to borrowing and tax revenue projections, as India charts its course as the world’s fastest-growing major economy.The Budget will be presented in a paperless format, continuing the practice of recent years. Sitharaman had, in her maiden Budget in 2019, replaced the traditional leather briefcase with a red cloth–wrapped bahi-khata, marking a symbolic shift in presentation.Here are the key numbers and signals that investors, economists and policymakers will be watching in the Union Budget for 2025-26 and beyond:
Fiscal deficit
The fiscal deficit for the current financial year (FY26) is budgeted at 4.4 per cent of GDP, as reported PTI. With the government having achieved its consolidation goal of keeping the deficit below 4.5 per cent, attention will turn to guidance for FY27. Markets expect the government to indicate a deficit closer to 4 per cent of GDP next year, alongside clarity on the medium-term debt reduction path.
Capital expenditure
Capital spending remains a central pillar of the government’s growth strategy. Capex for FY26 is pegged at Rs 11.2 lakh crore. In the upcoming Budget, the government is expected to continue prioritising infrastructure outlays, with a possible 10–15 per cent increase that could take capex beyond Rs 12 lakh crore, especially as private investment sentiment remains cautious.
Debt roadmap
In her previous Budget speech, the finance minister had said fiscal policy from 2026-27 onwards would aim to keep central government debt on a declining trajectory as a share of GDP. Markets will look for a clearer timeline on when general government debt-to-GDP could move towards the 60 per cent target. General government debt stood at about 85 per cent of GDP in 2024, including central government debt of around 57 per cent.
Borrowing programme
Gross market borrowing for FY26 is estimated at Rs 14.80 lakh crore. The borrowing number announced in the Budget will be closely scrutinised, as it signals the government’s funding needs, fiscal discipline and potential impact on bond yields.
Tax revenue
Gross tax revenue for 2025-26 has been estimated at Rs 42.70 lakh crore, implying an 11 per cent growth over FY25. This includes Rs 25.20 lakh crore from direct taxes—personal income tax and corporate tax—and Rs 17.5 lakh crore from indirect taxes such as customs, excise duty and GST.
GST collections
Goods and Services Tax collections for FY26 are projected to rise 11 per cent to Rs 11.78 lakh crore. Projections for FY27 will be keenly watched, especially as GST revenue growth is expected to gather pace following rate rationalisation measures implemented since September 2025.
Nominal GDP growth
Nominal GDP growth for FY26 was initially estimated at 10.1 per cent but has since been revised down to about 8 per cent due to lower-than-expected inflation, even as real GDP growth is pegged at 7.4 per cent by the National Statistics Office. The FY27 nominal GDP assumption—likely in the 10.5–11 per cent range—will offer clues on the government’s inflation and growth outlook.
Spending priorities
Beyond the headline aggregates, the Budget will also be scanned for allocations to key social and development schemes, as well as spending on priority sectors such as health and education.Together, these numbers will shape expectations on fiscal discipline, growth momentum and policy support as India navigates a complex global economic environment.
New Delhi: For decades, the Union Budget speech has followed a familiar script. But this year could mark a significant shift. In a departure from a 75-year tradition, Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman is expected to use Part B of her Budget speech not just for tax proposals, but to outline a broader and more detailed vision for India’s economic future, according to a report by NDTV which cited sources.
Understanding Part A and Part B of the Budget
The Union Budget speech is divided into two key sections. Part A outlines the government’s broader policy initiatives and sector-specific strategies aimed at driving growth and development. Part B, on the other hand, deals primarily with taxation proposals, covering both direct and indirect taxes.
Part B May Outline Broader Economic Roadmap
This year, Part B of the Budget speech is expected to go beyond routine tax announcements and present both short-term priorities and long-term goals as India moves deeper into the 21st century, sources said. The focus is likely to highlight India’s domestic strengths while laying out its global ambitions. Economists in India and abroad are closely tracking the developments, expecting a comprehensive roadmap rather than just incremental tax measures.
This will be Nirmala Sitharaman’s ninth consecutive Union Budget presentation. In her first Budget in 2019, she made headlines by replacing the traditional leather briefcase, long used to carry Budget documents with a red cloth-wrapped ‘bahi-khata’, symbolising a break from colonial-era practices. Like the past four years, this year’s Budget will also be presented in a paperless format, continuing the government’s push towards digitisation.
For the current fiscal, capital expenditure has been pegged at Rs 11.2 lakh crore. The government is expected to retain its strong focus on infrastructure and asset creation in the upcoming Budget, with estimates suggesting a 10–15 per cent increase in the capex target, especially as private sector investment continues to remain measured.
Drinkers across the UK are set to face higher prices for wine and spirits as a significant increase in alcohol duty comes into effect this Sunday, 1 February.
Industry leaders warn that businesses “have no choice but to increase prices” to remain viable amid mounting financial pressures.
The tax levied on alcoholic beverages will rise by 3.66 per cent, in line with the Retail Prices Index (RPI) inflation, a measure confirmed in November’s autumn budget.
While the duty is directly imposed on producers, industry chiefs anticipate a “trickle down” effect, with consumers ultimately bearing the brunt of these additional costs.
Official figures illustrate the impact: the duty on a typical 37.5 per cent alcohol by volume (ABV) bottle of gin will climb by 38p to £8.98, inclusive of VAT.
Similarly, a 40 per cent ABV bottle of Scotch whisky will see its duty increase by 39p, reaching £9.51. A 14.5 per cent red wine will incur an additional 14p in duty.
The Wine and Spirit Trade Association (WSTA) highlighted that the duty on a 14.5 per cent red wine has now surged by £1.10 per bottle since the new alcohol duty regime was introduced in August 2023.
In response, the UK Spirits Alliance, representing hundreds of distillers, has urged the Chancellor to use an upcoming duty review to foster growth, address “spirits discrimination,” and establish a long-term strategy for the sector.
The duty structure, partly linked to drink strength, saw an overhaul in 2023, resulting in beer below 3.5 per cent ABV paying significantly less tax.
This has prompted some beer brands, such as Foster’s, to reduce their strength to 3.4 per cent in recent months to mitigate duty costs.
However, the latest increase will affect beer sold in both pubs and supermarkets, marking the first time pubs have been impacted since 2017.
Emma McClarkin, chief executive of the British Beer and Pub Association, stated: “These changes unfortunately increase the likelihood of further price rises, which no brewer or publican would want to inflict on their customers.
“For brewers, who already pay some of the highest rates of beer duty in Europe, this increase will add further strain to their already razor-thin profit margins and risk one of the UK’s world-renowned industries producing the greatest beers in the world.”
Miles Beale, chief executive of the WSTA, criticised the government’s approach: “Despite the OBR (Office for Budget Responsibility) at last acknowledging higher prices lead to a decline in receipts, the Government fails to recognise that its own policy is benefiting no-one.
“For the nation’s wine and spirit sector the complexities of price changes, especially for wine which is now taxed by strength, mean more red tape headaches ahead.
“Add to this all the other costs – including NI (national insurance) contributions, business rates and waste packaging taxes – and businesses have no choice but to increase prices in order to keep afloat, which unfortunately means consumers are going to take the hit once again.”
Braden Saunders, spokesperson for the UK Spirits Alliance and co-founder of Doghouse Distillery, Battersea, remarked on the timing: “The timing couldn’t be more ironic. Just as dry January draws to a close and people contemplate their first hard-earned drink, they’re met with higher prices at the bar.
“The spirits industry has been treated as a cash cow by consecutive governments, and the sector is on its knees.”
Allen Simpson, chief executive of UKHospitality, echoed these concerns: “Hospitality businesses are facing price pressures at every turn and our sector’s cost burden is growing at an unsustainable rate.
“Increases to alcohol duty, while not paid directly by operators, is another pressure, if it is passed on to businesses through higher drinks prices. We strongly urge suppliers to show restraint in doing so, recognising the economic pressure the sector is under.”
A Treasury spokesman defended the policy, stating: “For too long the economy hasn’t worked for working people, and cost-of-living pressures still bear down. That’s why we are determined to help bring costs down for everyone.
“It’s why we’re taking £150 off energy bills, increasing the National Living Wage, ending the two-child limit, rolling out free breakfast clubs for all primary school children, and freezing fuel duty, rail fares and prescription fees.
“We need to rebuild the public services we all rely on. We’ve put record funding into our schools and NHS to give every child the best start in life and bring down waiting lists.
“Alcohol duty plays an important role in ensuring public finances remain fair and strong and funds the public services people rely on every day.”
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