Business
How the Iran war could start to impact U.S. retail prices
The Iran war could soon mean higher prices on store shelves for consumers.
Iran’s effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz passage has significantly disrupted the global supply chain, affecting goods from fertilizers to metals to gas and fuel. The passage is a critical point, funneling tens of millions of barrels of oil daily along with other exports as one of the world’s most important shipping routes.
And the tensions with the strait are showing no signs of changing. On Thursday, Iran’s new supreme leader, Mojtaba Khamenei, said the closure should be continued as a “tool to pressure the enemy” in his first public statement since being appointed. Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth on Friday downplayed concerns about the strait, saying at a Pentagon press briefing, “We have been dealing with it, and don’t need to worry about it.”
In a Friday statement, logistics provider C.H. Robinson said it’s continuing to monitor updates and urged shippers to plan for continued variability.
“While cargo is moving, carriers are managing constrained capacity, selective acceptance, and fuel‑related cost impacts, resulting in pricing volatility and variable service conditions,” the statement read.
Though it’s still early to determine what the exact impact on retail may be, Coresight Research President Max Kahn said the disruption to the global supply chain may already be pushing the industry near its limits.
“Retailers have become much better at building flexibility in their supply chains, and that got accelerated a lot last year with tariffs,” Kahn told CNBC. “The bigger worry is if this continues to last.”
Prices at the grocery store may be hit first, Kahn said, since food items tend to have less flexible supply chains, while apparel retailers can likely afford to slow production and bulk it up again later without disrupting inventory.
As retailers navigate the geopolitical landscape, Kahn said they’ll likely be facing two factors: input cost pressure and demand pressure.
“Retailers are going to have to play that,” he said. “One of the reasons how retail stayed resilient in 2022 and 2023 was they were able to raise prices, and that raising of prices sort of offset some weakening in units, so our sense would be that that could be very similar this time around.”
Retail hasn’t just been affected by shipping changes, either. Shipments of garments for Zara owner Inditex, along with other clothing retailers, were stranded last week as flights in the Middle East were canceled, according to Reuters.
Kahn said retailers’ potential struggles could have broader economic implications, too. Though companies have learned to be somewhat adaptable to the changing macroeconomic environment over the past few years, he noted that the overall growth for retail has been “so-so,” and while the industry continues to navigate the war, that uncertainty will also begin to affect GDP growth.
Still, as the chaos persists, Kahn said he expects value retailers like Walmart and Kroger and dollar stores like Dollar General and Dollar Tree to have an easier time because shoppers will be looking for more value-priced items.
In addition to impacting the global supply chain, consumer confidence is already taking a hit from the war. Though Wednesday’s consumer price index came in as expected, industry experts have said higher gas prices will likely affect discretionary spending as consumers pull back to cover costs at the pump, affecting the retailers that may already be reeling from supply chain impacts.
In a Sunday note, Wolfe Research analysts wrote that discretionary-heavy retailers are likely to be among the largest losers from the war.
“Retailers with a bigger discretionary mix, like Five Below and Target, also face headwinds as consumer confidence comes under pressure and they mix down,” they wrote.
Still, some retailers may have other factors helping them out of the war fallout. Retailers that appeal to higher-income consumers or who have specialty offerings, like Costco, may be able to escape the squeeze.
“Costco should benefit as their price leadership on gas becomes more important, and consumers are more willing to wait 20+ minutes for gas,” the analysts added.
UBS analysts wrote in a Monday note that the war is adding uncertainty to an already weakened consumer dealing with the changing macroenvironment and the K-shaped economy, where those at the high end continue to do well while lower-income consumers struggle.
“The rise in oil prices should add a meaningful burden to household budgets and intensify strains already visible across the consumer landscape,” they wrote.
While some retailers like Ulta and Costco have historically seen same store sales increase alongside oil inflation, companies that serve lower-income shoppers like Ollie’s Bargain Outlet and Dollar General are likely to see sales decrease as consumers face budget restraints, the UBS analysts said.
“All in, the rise in oil prices could create a layered and persistent drag on consumer health,” they wrote. “It increases fixed household expenditures, puts upward pressure on grocery prices, reshapes retail traffic patterns and introduces operational challenges for retailers across multiple segments.”
Business
Yum Brands earnings top estimates, fueled by Taco Bell’s 8% same-store sales growth
Yum Brands on Wednesday reported quarterly earnings and revenue that topped analysts’ expectations, fueled by another strong quarter for Taco Bell.
Here’s what the company reported compared with what Wall Street was expecting, based on a survey of analysts by LSEG:
- Earnings per share: $1.50 adjusted vs. $1.38 expected
- Revenue: $2.06 billion vs. $2.04 billion expected
Yum reported first-quarter net income of $432 million, or $1.55 per share, up from $253 million, or 90 cents per share, a year earlier.
Excluding charges related to its strategic review of Pizza Hut and other items, the company earned $1.50 per share.
Net sales climbed 15% to $2.06 billion, lifted by higher revenue from company-owned restaurants. Last year, the company bought more than 100 Taco Bell locations across the Southeast with a goal of accelerating development and profitability.
Across Yum, global same-store sales rose 3%, driven by growth at Taco Bell, the gem of the company’s portfolio.
Taco Bell’s same-store sales increased 8%, topping Wall Street’s estimates of 5.6% growth, according to a survey by StreetAccount.
“Taco Bell delivered an outstanding 8% same-store sales growth, meaningfully ahead of the [quick-service restaurant] industry, building off a very strong Q1 same-store sales growth rate in 2025,” Yum CEO Chris Turner said in a statement.
Yum also plans to expand its use of artificial intelligence-driven A/B testing for Taco Bell’s drive-thru lanes, following a successful pilot in the first quarter. The technology lets Taco Bell change the layout, visuals and content shown to cars in the drive-thru lanes, allowing the chain to learn quickly about what messages resonate more with customers.
“If I think about our philosophy as it relates to AI, first and foremost, we want to use AI to drive growth,” Turner said on the company’s earnings conference call.
KFC reported same-store sales growth of 2%, shy of the 2.5% increase projected by StreetAccount. While the fried chicken chain’s international business is considered one of Yum’s “growth engines,” its U.S. business has struggled in recent years, buckling under increased competition and consumers’ value expectations.
KFC U.S. system sales fell 2% during the first quarter. Yum is no longer sharing the market’s quarterly same-store sales, signaling that the chain’s U.S. business is now considered immaterial to the company’s broader results. Its home market is now KFC’s third-largest region by system sales, falling behind China and Europe. However, Turner said that KFC U.S. is still “strategically important” for Yum.
To win back customers, KFC is taking some cues from Taco Bell’s successful playbook by leaning into innovation and affordability. It’s also been expanding a spinoff chain that focuses on chicken tenders called Saucy, which provides the broader KFC business with ideas about what menu items are resonating with diners.
Similarly, Pizza Hut saw stronger results outside of its home market. The struggling pizza chain reported flat same-store sales globally, although its international business saw same-store sales rise 2% in the quarter. Its U.S. same-store sales shrank 4%.
Analysts were projecting global same-store sales declines of 0.7% for Pizza Hut, according to StreetAccount.
In November, Yum said it would explore strategic options for the chain, which has long been the laggard of its portfolio. Several private equity firms, including Apollo Global Management and Sycamore Partners, are among the potential buyers vying for Pizza Hut, Reuters reported earlier this month.
While Yum did not provide an update on the strategic review on Wednesday, its earnings release did include a bullet point showing the company’s system sales, unit count and core operating profit excluding Pizza Hut.
Business
Stock market today (April 29, 2026): Sensex jumps 609 points, Nifty nears 24,200-Check top gainers and losers today – The Times of India
Benchmark equity indices Sensex and Nifty rebounded nearly 1 per cent on Wednesday, helped by bargain buying in FMCG, auto and telecom shares, upbeat earnings sentiment and gains across Asian markets.Traders said signs of possible de-escalation in geopolitical tensions also supported sentiment.In a volatile session, the 30-share BSE Sensex climbed 609.45 points, or 0.79 per cent, to close at 77,496.36. During the day, it surged 1,095.60 points, or 1.42 per cent, to touch 77,982.51.The NSE Nifty rose 181.95 points, or 0.76 per cent, to settle at 24,177.65, according to PTI.
Nifty 50 top gainers
- ITC (+3.88%)
- Tech Mahindra (+3.68%)
- Maruti Suzuki (+2.84%)
- Coal India (+2.77%)
- Reliance Industries (+2.63%)
- Bharti Airtel (+2.41%)
- M&M (+2.08%)
- Sun Pharma (+1.80%)
- Nestle India (+1.78%)
- Tata Consumer (+1.77%)
Nifty 50 top losers
- InterGlobe Aviation (-2.19%)
- Dr Reddy’s (-1.84%)
- NTPC (-1.37%)
- ICICI Bank (-0.86%)
- Bajaj Finserv (-0.84%)
- Hindalco (-0.67%)
- Asian Paints (-0.63%)
- Trent (-0.61%)
- Apollo Hospital (-0.57%)
- HDFC Bank (-0.46%)
BSE Sensex top gainers
- ITC (+3.88%)
- Tech Mahindra (+3.68%)
- Maruti Suzuki (+2.84%)
- Reliance Industries (+2.63%)
- Bharti Airtel (+2.41%)
- M&M (+2.08%)
- Sun Pharma (+1.80%)
- L&T (+1.45%)
- Adani Ports (+1.44%)
- Infosys (+1.34%)
BSE Sensex top losers
- InterGlobe Aviation (-2.19%)
- NTPC (-1.37%)
- ICICI Bank (-0.86%)
- Bajaj Finserv (-0.84%)
- Asian Paints (-0.63%)
- Trent (-0.61%)
- HDFC Bank (-0.46%)
- SBI (-0.41%)
Maruti advanced 2.82 per cent after the country’s largest carmaker reported a record annual consolidated net profit of Rs 14,679.5 crore for FY26, up 1.24 per cent year-on-year, driven by its highest-ever annual sales of more than 24.22 lakh units, helped by GST rate reduction.In Asian markets, South Korea’s Kospi, Shanghai’s SSE Composite and Hong Kong’s Hang Seng ended higher. Japanese markets were shut for a holiday.“The core driver of today’s strength remained earnings. Strong results from key companies reinforced confidence in underlying domestic demand and balance sheet resilience. This fundamental support, combined with easing geopolitical concerns, helped markets shift focus away from macro stress toward corporate performance,” Hariprasad K, Research Analyst and Founder, Livelong Wealth, said, PTI quoted.“Hopes of potential de-escalation in geopolitical tensions helped stabilise crude oil expectations, which is critical for India’s macro outlook,” he added.European markets were trading lower, while US markets had ended lower on Tuesday.Brent crude, the global oil benchmark, jumped 2.85 per cent to USD 114.4 per barrel.“Despite weak global cues, elevated crude prices, and a depreciating INR, India’s equity markets rebounded from recent lows as investors used the correction to add exposure, supported by better-than-expected earnings despite geopolitical uncertainty.“Gains were led by FMCG, auto, and realty stocks on strong results and positive commentary, while financials lagged due to regulatory tightening and provisioning concerns,” Vinod Nair, Head of Research, Geojit Investments Limited, said.Foreign Institutional Investors (FIIs) sold equities worth Rs 2,103.74 crore on Tuesday, while Domestic Institutional Investors (DIIs) bought shares worth Rs 1,712.01 crore, as per exchange data.
Business
UAE exit weakens OPEC+ influence over oil market, alliance holds firm – SUCH TV
The UAE is the fourth-largest producer in the Organisation of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and said it would quit the group on Tuesday after nearly 60 years as a member.
That will free Abu Dhabi from the oil production targets imposed by OPEC and its allies to balance supply and demand.
The UAE’s exit came as a shock, said five OPEC+ sources, who asked not to be named as they are not allowed to speak to the press.
The exit would complicate OPEC+’s efforts to balance the market through adjustments to supply because the group would have control over less of global production, four of the five sources said.
The UAE will become the largest oil producer to depart OPEC, a heavy blow to the organisation and its main member, Saudi Arabia.
Abu Dhabi pumped around 3.4 million barrels per day (bpd) or about 3% of the world’s crude supply before the US-Israeli war on Iran forced it and other Middle East Gulf producers to curb shipments and shut down some production.
OPEC and the Saudi government’s communication office did not immediately reply to a request for comment.
Once outside OPEC, the UAE will join the ranks of independent oil producers that pump at will, such as the United States and Brazil.
For now, there is not much the UAE can do to increase production or exports due to the effective closure of shipping through the Strait of Hormuz.
If and when shipping recovers to pre-war levels, the UAE could increase output to the country’s capacity of 5 million bpd of crude oil and liquids.
There has been tension between the UAE and Saudi Arabia over the Emiratis’ production quota, which stands at 3.5 million bpd.
The UAE has asked for a bigger quota to reflect the fact that it has expanded capacity as part of a $150 billion investment programme.
“For years, Abu Dhabi has been looking to monetise its investment in expanding capacity,” said Helima Croft from RBC Capital Markets.
The US-Israeli war on Iran would, however, slow those plans down after drones and rockets damaged the UAE’s production facilities, she said.
The war has resulted in the biggest-ever global energy supply disruption in terms of outright daily oil production, according to the International Energy Agency.
The conflict has also exposed discord among Gulf nations, including between the UAE and Saudi Arabia.
Rumours of the UAE’s exit from OPEC+ have circulated for years amid worsening relations with Riyadh over conflicts in Sudan, Somalia and Yemen.
The UAE has also grown increasingly close to the United States and Israel.
Iraq stays in
The UAE is the fourth producer to quit OPEC+ in recent years, and by far the biggest.
Angola quit the bloc in 2024, citing disagreements over production levels. Ecuador quit OPEC in 2020 and Qatar in 2019.
Iraq, the third-largest producer in OPEC+ after Saudi Arabia and Russia, has no plan to leave OPEC+ as it wants stable and acceptable oil prices, two Iraqi oil officials said on Tuesday.
OPEC+ will not collapse as Saudi Arabia will still want to manage the market with the help of the group, said Gary Ross, a veteran OPEC watcher and CEO of Black Gold Investors.
“At the end of the day, Saudi Arabia was essentially OPEC — the only country with spare capacity,” said Ross.
Saudi Arabia can produce 12.5 million bpd, but has in recent years kept production under 10 million.
OPEC+ membership gives countries more diplomatic and international weight — one of the reasons cited by analysts behind Iran’s decision to stay in OPEC even at the peak of its fight with Gulf countries.
US President Donald Trump has accused OPEC of “ripping off the rest of the world” by inflating oil prices.
Trump has said the US may reconsider military support to the Gulf because of OPEC oil policies.
It was, however, Trump who helped convince OPEC+ to cut output in 2020 during the COVID pandemic as oil prices slumped and US producers suffered.
“The UAE withdrawal marks a significant shift for OPEC … the longer-term implication is a structurally weaker OPEC,” said Jorge Leon, a former OPEC official who now works at Rystad Energy.
OPEC+ members will be more focused on rebuilding facilities hit by the war rather than on embarking on production cuts in the near future, said Croft.
Hence, the broader OPEC+ breakup is not on the cards for now, she added.
Declining power
OPEC’s sway over the market has been declining for decades.
Formed in 1960, OPEC once controlled over 50% of global output.
As rivals’ production grew, the group’s share declined to around 30% of the world’s total oil and oil liquids output of 105 million barrels per day last year.
The United States, which used to rely on imports from OPEC members, has become its biggest rival over the past 15 years.
The US has raised production to as much as 20% of the world’s total on the back of its shale oil boom.
The US production spike prompted OPEC to team up in 2016 with several non-OPEC producers to form OPEC+, a group led by Russia — previously one of Saudi Arabia’s top rivals in the oil industry.
The alliance gave the group control over around 50% of the world’s total oil production in 2025, according to the International Energy Agency.
The loss of the UAE means it will decline to around 45%.
-
Politics1 week agoUK’s Starmer seeks to deflect blame over Mandelson appointment
-
Business1 week agoHow Trump’s psychedelics executive order could unlock stalled cannabis reform
-
Entertainment1 week agoLee Anderson, Zarah Sultana kicked out of UK Parliament for calling PM ‘liar’
-
Business1 week agoUs-India Trade Talks: US–India trade deal: Where do talks stand & what to expect – explained – The Times of India
-
Fashion1 week agoIndia, US to resume BTA talks today
-
Tech1 week agoA Humanoid Robot Set a Half-Marathon Record in China
-
Sports1 week ago‘It’s his superpower’: Inside Fernando Mendoza’s extraordinary rise to No. 1
-
Business1 week agoUK inflation accelerates after Iran war drives sharp rise in fuel prices
